China used to understand something a lot of powers never learn: the best wins are the quiet ones. Sun Tzu talked about beating enemies without fighting, about making people lose before they even realize what happened.

Confucian thinkers pushed ideas about proper conduct, respect, and harmony, about leaders earning their place through how they behave, not just how big their army is.

For centuries, that way of thinking shaped how China dealt with the world. It built influence through trade, culture, ideas. Other countries respected China or at least accepted that it sat at the center of things. China didn't have to shout to be heard. It just had to exist and be steady.

That's the version of China I grew up hearing about: old, complicated, and smart. A country that knew how to play the long game.

WHERE IT STARTED GOING SIDEWAYS

When Xi Jinping came in, he inherited a China that was already rising. They were rolling out the Belt and Road projects, selling this big idea of building roads, ports, and railways that link countries to China. They opened Confucius Institutes around the world to promote Chinese language and culture. The pitch was simple: "Work with us, grow with us, we're the future."

Pero somewhere along the way, the vibe changed.

Instead of attracting people, China started scaring them. We saw it in the South China Sea. We saw it when Chinese coast guard ships went after our vessels in waters that are clearly within the Philippines' own zone.

In April 2025, Chinese ships didn't just block our boats—they tried to ram them and even grabbed food that was being air-dropped to our marines. That's pure harassment looking like a clever play from the outside.

They did the same thing to Japan. When Japan's prime minister talked about Taiwan, Beijing responded with threats and pressure campaigns, hoping Tokyo would back down. Japan didn't. Instead, it dug in and got even closer to the U.S. and other partners. Suddenly, China wasn't this wise elder in the region anymore. It looked like the neighborhood bully who keeps misreading the room.

The big question is: why would a country that used to win with patience and brains start choosing brute force and public tantrums?

EVERYTHING NOW RUNS THROUGH ONE MAN

Part of the answer sits with Xi himself.

He scrapped term limits for the presidency so he could stay in power. He took out rivals through "anti-corruption" drives, many of which were clearly political. He pushed his own "Xi Jinping Thought" into the Party charter and turned himself into the face of the state.

For decades, China tried to avoid that kind of "all about one man" setup after the Mao years. Power was shared more carefully. Leaders had to listen to others.

Under Xi, that changed.

Little by little, everything started flowing through him. He sets the tone abroad. He decides how to respond when someone challenges China. He dominates decision-making. On paper, that looks like strong leadership. In reality, it removes the people who would normally say, "Wait, this might blow up in our faces."

And without those people, you get a China that confuses shouting with strength.

WHEN YOU START PURGING YOUR OWN GENERALS

Then came this weekend.

On January 24, 2026, news broke that General Zhang Youxia, the number two man in the Chinese military and Xi's vice chair in the top military body, was under investigation. Almost at the same time, General Liu Zhenli, the officer in charge of planning and running actual operations, got hit too.

Zhang isn't just some random official. He's a childhood friend of Xi. Their fathers fought together in Mao's wars. Both came from powerful revolutionary families. Zhang also has something most Chinese generals don't: real battle experience from fighting Vietnam in 1979. Liu Zhenli has combat experience from clashes with Vietnam in the 1980s.

These aren't just paper officers. These are the guys who have actually seen bullets fly.

The official accusation? They supposedly broke discipline and undermined the "chairman responsibility system," which is Xi's way of saying, "I'm the final boss here." The Party press said they threatened the rule that the Communist Party must fully control the army. That's Party-speak for, "I'm not sure they're loyal enough to me."

The result is wild: the top military body that used to have seven members now has two left—Xi and the guy whose job is to hunt "corrupt" officers. Every uniformed commander Xi promoted to that body in 2022 has now been removed. Since around mid-2023, more than fifty senior officers and related executives have been taken down.

At one point in 2024, nine generals were kicked out within a single month.

People who follow the PLA closely are saying the top leadership of China's military is basically hollowed out. The old hands with war experience are gone. The ones left are mainly those who know how to show loyalty.

Here's where it gets scary: some analysts think this chaos makes a planned big invasion, like against Taiwan, harder to pull off in the short term because there's no stable, experienced leadership. But at the same time, they warn that the risk of accidents or miscalculations is higher. When no one dares tell the leader "No," mistakes don't get stopped early.

That's not a stable system. That's a nervous boss tearing down his own command team while the whole world is watching.

A STRATEGY THAT HURTS ITSELF

China used to rely on charm and status to pull other countries in. Now, look at where it stands.

Countries that once welcomed Chinese money for infrastructure are now more cautious. Some are stuck with heavy debts and feel trapped. Confucius Institutes, meant to spread Chinese language and culture, have been closed in several places or are under suspicion. Surveys and commentary from abroad show more and more people view Beijing with distrust, not admiration.

In the South China Sea, the more aggressive China gets—ramming ships, building military bases on artificial islands, using coast guard and militia boats to push others out—the more it drives its neighbors into each other's arms. The Philippines draws closer to the U.S. and other partners. Japan hardens its own defense plans. Southeast Asian states that once tried to keep things balanced quietly brace themselves.

And inside, the military leadership is being ripped apart right when the world is tense. One China expert asked a simple question: "How can you launch a complicated operation with air, land, and sea forces when your top generals are under investigation or have been removed?" Another pointed out that the message sent by purging even childhood friends is simple: nobody is safe.

Instead of the calm, confident China that plays the long game, we see a China that looks insecure and jumpy.

HOW THIS LOOKS FROM A MANAGER'S EYES

If this was a company, and you walked in as a consultant, what would you see?

First, the team doesn't seem to know what it really wants anymore. Is the goal to attract partners through trade and culture? To scare them into silence with warships and threats? To be loved or to be feared? Right now, China is trying to do all of that at once, and the mixed signals are hurting it.

Second, all power is in one man's hands. If he reads things wrong, there are no internal brakes. When Xi feels insecure, people get purged. When loyalty becomes more important than skill, you start losing your best people, or at least the ones willing to say the hard truths.

Third, there's a hunger for quick wins instead of patient building. Ramming a Philippine boat might feel like showing strength, but the long-term effect is the opposite: more resistance, more alliances against you, more bad press. The same goes for yelling at other governments on TV, or using ambassadors to scold host countries in public. It feels strong in the moment, but it weakens your position over time.

And finally, when you start cutting down people like Zhang Youxia, who had deep ties and actual war experience, just to prove no one is untouchable, you send a message that chills everyone else. Yes, you show that you're in charge. But you also show that you're scared.

To me? That's a fragile kind of power.

THE HERITAGE THEY'RE LEAVING BEHIND

What hurts to watch is how far this is from the older Chinese ideas about leadership.

The old model: a leader earns respect by being steady, predictable, and anchored in some shared moral code. The modern version we're seeing: a leader stays in charge by keeping everyone else slightly afraid and slightly off-balance.

The old model: avoid unnecessary fights, position yourself so that others choose to move around you. The current model: react, threaten, push, then clean up the fallout later.

We feel this in the Philippines. When Chinese ships harass our boats, they're not just flexing strength. They're showing that the system on their side is broken enough that bullying feels like a reasonable option. When they gut their own military leadership at a time of high tensions, they're showing that their fear of "disloyalty" is stronger than their need for stability.

In early January 2026, Xi gave a speech warning that "bullying acts" and unilateral moves are destroying the global order. He meant the U.S. and its allies. But if you step back and look at what China is doing—from the South China Sea to its own internal purges—you see the same behavior he was condemning.

That's the painful part. You can't even call it pure hypocrisy anymore. It looks more like a leader and a system that can't see itself clearly.

WHY I END UP FEELING PITY

When I look at all this, I don't feel triumph. I don't feel, "Buti nga." I feel something closer to pity.

China had almost everything a state could want: size, history, culture, a growing economy, a deep tradition of strategic thinking, a moment when many countries were open to deeper ties. It had tools that didn't require ramming ships or purging generals.

Now we see a China that bullies smaller neighbors, alienates bigger ones, and tears down its own command team at the exact moment it needs clear minds and steady hands. We see a leader who could have trusted a system with multiple voices, but instead chose to make everything depend on himself.

Three thousand years of learning how to win without losing your soul. Then one era that seems determined to forget all of it.

And that, more than the bluster and the ships and the speeches, is what makes me pity China. Not because they are weak, but because they traded a wiser kind of strength for something louder, harsher, and so much more fragile.

SOURCES:

1. Territorial disputes of China, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_China

2. Southeast Asia facing China: views in The Strategist, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/southeast-asia-facing-china-views-in-the-strategist/

3. 'Bullying acts severely undermining international order': Chinese president, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/bullying-acts-severely-undermining-international-order-chinese-president/3789863

4. Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea | Global Conflict Tracker, https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea

5. China continues to militarize the South China Sea, https://www.bushcenter.org/publications/china-continues-to-militarize-the-south-china-sea-heres-what-should-be-done

6. If China can bully Japan, it can bully anyone, https://chellaney.net/2025/11/23/if-china-can-bully-japan-it-can-bully-anyone/

7. China Primer: South China Sea Disputes, https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/PDF/IF10607/IF10607.13.pdf

8. China's South Sea Aggression Is Backfiring, https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/06/south-china-sea-philippines-fishing-vessels-maritime-conflict-shoal/

9. A poisonous force undermining China-Philippines relations, https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/20/WS696ee7baa310d6866eb34af8.html

10. Chinese Soft Power: The Role of Culture and Confucianism, https://surface.syr.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1184&context=honors_capstone

11. Sun Tzu: The Man Who Defined Chinese Warfare, https://www.thecollector.com/sun-tzu-chinese-warfare/

12. The Belt and Road Initiative: China's Vision for Global Connectivity, https://journalajess.com/index.php/AJESS/article/view/1745

13. When Soft Power Is Too Soft: Confucius Institutes’ Nebulous Role in China’s Soft Power Initiative, https://yris.yira.org/essays/when-soft-power-is-too-soft-confucius-institutes-nebulous-role-in-chinas-soft-power-initiative/

14. The State of China's Soft Power in 2025, https://www.e-ir.info/2025/12/17/the-state-of-chinas-soft-power-in-2025/

15. Global Opinion Turns Against Beijing: A Failure of Soft Power, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/global-opinion-turns-against-beijing-failure-soft-power

16. Soft Power and National Identity in Chinese International Relations, https://www.davidpublisher.com/Public/uploads/Contribute/5ef80d2293d6a.pdf

17. Sun Tzu in Contemporary Chinese Strategy, https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/Article/577507/sun-tzu-in-contemporary-chinese-strategy/

18. Tracing China's diplomatic transition to wolf warrior, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02367-6

19. Confucius doesn't live here anymore, https://theconversation.com/confucius-doesnt-live-here-anymore-33006

20. China's Authoritarian Vision for the 21st Century, https://foreignanalysis.com/chinas-authoritarian-vision-for-the-21st-century/

21. China Is Locked Into Xi Jinping's Aggressive Diplomacy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/02/china-xi-jinping-aggressive-diplomacy/

22. Despite the Cultural Revolution, Confucius Still Walks the Chinese Corridors of Power, https://vanguardthinktank.org/despite-the-cultural-revolution-confucius-still-walks-the-chinese-corridors-of-power

23. Influence of Confucianism on the Chinese Political System, https://ine.org.pl/en/influence-of-confucianism-on-the-chinese-political-system-a-case-of-social-credit-system-and-socialist-cor/

24. Pragmatic Nationalism and Confucianism: The New Ideology of the CCP, http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/229/pragmatic-nationalism-and-confucianism-the-new-ideology-of-the-ccp

25. Xi Jinping as 'Authoritarian Reformer', https://freedomhouse.org/article/xi-jinping-authoritarian-reformer

26. China in Xi's “New Era”: The Return to Personalistic Rule, https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/china-in-xis-new-era-the-return-to-personalistic-rule/

27. Xi Jinping: A Cult of Personality?, https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/xi-jinping-cult-personality

28. China's Military Aggression in the Indo-Pacific Region, https://2017-2021.state.gov/chinas-military-aggression-in-the-indo-pacific-region/

29. Southeast Asia facing China: views in The Strategist (Asia 2026 conflict focus), https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/12/30/asia-in-2026-conflict-continues-to-dominate/

30. China's top general falls: inside Xi Jinping's hollow military, https://www.thebureau.news/p/chinas-top-general-falls-inside-xi

31. China has purged its highest-ranked military general. Why?, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d0l0g8yz5o

32. China's Xi Places His Top General Under Investigation as Military Purges Heat Up, https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-xi-places-his-top-general-under-investigation-as-military-purges-heat-up-d07f9c7d

33. What does the probe into senior military officials in China mean?, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01-27/what-does-chinas-military-investigation-into-zhang-youxia-mean/106272224

34. Downfall of top Chinese military officer raises questions, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/01/26/asia-pacific/china-military-purge-xi-analysis/

35. 'Nobody is safe': China's Xi targets his close ally in purge, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nobody-is-safe-chinas-xi-targets-his-close-ally-purge-2026-01-26/

36. Xi's Purge of the Chinese Military, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/world/china-xi-military-purge-israel-hostage-gaza.html

37. China military purges raise war risk despite weakness, https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/china-expert-warns-internal-military-chaos-may-increase-risk-escalation-despite-weakened-war-c

38. Purge of top Chinese general throws military into turmoil, https://www.nbcnews.com/world/china/china-xi-jinping-general-zhang-corruption-purge-taiwan-invasion-rcna255911

39. China places highest-ranking general under investigation, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c701kr5zqdqo

40. How a purge of China's military leadership could reshape the PLA, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/purge-chinas-military-leadership-impact-army-future-taiwan-129555905

41. How China's Military Is Being Remade Under Xi, https://caspianpost.com/analytics/how-china-s-military-is-being-remade-under-xi

42. As Generals Fall, Xi Jinping's Anti-Corruption Campaign Is Tested, https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/26/xi-generals-zhang-youxia-anti-corruption-china/

43. China's top general under investigation in latest military shake-up, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/24/china/china-top-general-under-investigation-intl-hnk

44. Chinese leader Xi Purges Top Military Brass, https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/xi-jinping-purges-top-military-brass

45. Xi's Purge of China's Military Brings Its Top General Down, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/24/world/asia/china-top-general-xi-military-purge.html

46. Like a Drifter, He Was Born to Walk Alone, https://chinaarticles.substack.com/p/like-a-drifter-he-was-born-to-walk

47. Month before Xi Jinping's purge of China's top general, Pentagon warned of PLA problems, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global/xi-jinping-purge-general-china-pentagon-10495544/

48. Will China's Latest Purge Come for Xi Jinping?, https://www.thefp.com/p/will-chinas-latest-purge-come-for

49. Xi Jinping's historic purge of China's military: 5 things to know, https://asia.nikkei.com/politics/xi-jinping-s-historic-purge-of-china-s-military-5-things-to-know

50. How China guards the Xi creation myth, https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-34549744