Morning Coffee Thoughts: What Happens If Sara Duterte "Walks"?

What happens if Sara Duterte walks? This Morning Coffee Thoughts blog tackles that question head-on—exploring the legal chessboard, the political networks quietly shielding her, and the dangerous precedent it sets if she escapes accountability. It’s not just about one impeachment. It’s about how power really works in the Philippines—and what’s left of our democracy when institutions start bending for the well-connected.

I was up at 3 a.m. My toy poodle—small dog, big bladder—was scratching at the door, doing that gentle whine he reserves for early morning emergencies. I grumbled my way out of bed, opened the door, and waited while he did his business.

It's been raining all night. Typhoon Crising has been throwing punches across the region—some folks are waking up to ankle-deep water, others to chest-high floods. And while standing there in the dim hallway, staring into the wet darkness, a thought hit me. Or maybe it was more of a question:

What happens if Sara Duterte walks?

God forbid.

My brain was split between two things: the cold, quiet awareness that people are out there, salvaging whatever's left after floodwater invaded their homes… and this creeping unease about what it means for our democracy if the Vice President walks away unscathed.

Some people say c'est la vie, but that's just a fancy way of saying buti na lang ako hindi binaha. Comforting for one, cruel for the rest. It's a kind of callous survivalism dressed in poetry.

But I digress.

My dog finished his business, shook himself off, and trotted back inside. And just like that, the spell broke. I was back. Back to reality. Back to the question that refused to wait for sunrise.

So I did what any anxious, overthinking writer does.

I grabbed my laptop. At 3:17 a.m., I started reading.

Two Very Different Paths, Two Very Different Consequences

If Sara Duterte manages to dodge conviction in her impeachment trial, there are only two ways it can happen. One is legitimate, the other? Dangerous.

She either gets acquitted through proper constitutional procedures. Or the Senate pulls off a maneuver—something procedural, something flimsy—that ends the case before it begins. Both scenarios leave her in office. But only one respects the system we're supposed to believe in.

Scenario One: A Clean Acquittal or Procedural Dismissal Done Right

If she's acquitted after a real trial—or if the case gets dismissed properly—then she stays as Vice President. That's it. No lifetime bans. No asterisks next to her name. She even remains eligible to run for President in 2028.

Which, politically, is a huge win. For her.

Criminal and Administrative Cases Still Ongoing

But here's where it gets complicated.

The criminal cases? Still very much alive. The NBI filed grave threats and inciting to sedition charges against Sara Duterte with the Department of Justice on February 12, 2025. These stem from her November 23, 2024 statement where she claimed to have hired someone to kill President Marcos, First Lady Liza Marcos, and House Speaker Martin Romualdez if she were assassinated. The DOJ is still going through preliminary investigation of these charges.

If proven in court, grave threats tied to murder could carry a sentence of up to 40 years, as NBI Director Jaime Santiago explained that the penalty depends on the threatened crime—in this case, murder, which carries penalties of reclusion perpetua.

Same with the plunder and bribery allegations tied to the ₱612.5 million confidential funds. The Ombudsman ordered Sara Duterte and nine other officials to file counter-affidavits within 10 days after receiving the order on June 20, 2025. The charges include plunder, technical malversation, falsification, bribery, corruption of public officers, betrayal of public trust, and culpable violation of the Constitution.

Now, there's this "impeach-first" principle floating around—some say a public official has to be impeached before criminal charges can proceed. But that's a legal gray area. And it doesn't mean the DOJ or Ombudsman won't move.

They will. They already are.

What Happens to the Senators

If the Senate holds a trial and acquits her fair and square, the senators don't face legal trouble. They did their job. But politically? The 2025 midterm elections showed that Duterte allies performed better than expected. Their vote will be remembered, especially by a public that's been watching all this with gritted teeth.

Scenario Two: The Dangerous Shortcut—Illegal Dismissal

If the Senate Kills the Case Prematurely

Now this is where it gets messy.

If the Senate throws out the case without a trial, we're looking at a full-blown constitutional crisis. Legal scholars are already warning: this violates Article XI of the Constitution. It's not just a wrong move—it's a reckless one.

Even the framers of our Constitution say the Supreme Court might have to step in. And they don't say that lightly.

What Happens to Her Then?

Even if she benefits from an illegal dismissal, Sara Duterte doesn't get to ride off into the sunset. The criminal and administrative cases continue. But an early dismissal gives her breathing room. It gives her a breather. Makes it look like she’s off the hook– even if she is not.

But Let's Not Pretend They Haven't Tried

It's not like they haven't tried to free her.

That was the second thought that hit me—sometime around 3:41 a.m., after scanning through documents and headlines I had already read weeks ago. And yet, seeing it all in one place painted a picture more damning than I remembered.

The truth is, Sara Duterte doesn't stand alone. She stands on a cushion built by Duterte loyalists still embedded in the Marcos government, quietly shaping outcomes from behind the scenes.

We're not talking about fringe influence either—we're talking senators, justices, local officials, police brass, Ombudsman deputies, even holdovers in the DOJ. Some were appointed years ago. Some have simply stayed silent out of fear or favor. Either way, the network is real—and still powerful.

There's an entire backdoor apparatus that could protect her not through dramatic courtroom scenes but through a thousand invisible delays, reinterpretations, and procedural acrobatics.

It's the kind of thing you wouldn't notice unless you were looking.

And sadly, I was looking.

The Hidden Network: Duterte Loyalists Still Embedded in the Marcos Administration

While the Philippines is indeed under a Marcos administration, the government structure remains riddled with Duterte appointees and loyalists who could potentially orchestrate backdoor arrangements to protect Sara Duterte. This creates a messy tangle of loyalties that can easily get in the way of real accountability.

The Senate's Duterte Bloc: A Powerful Shield

The most immediate threat to Sara Duterte's prosecution lies in the Senate's composition, which will ultimately determine her impeachment fate. The 2025 midterm elections revealed the enduring strength of Duterte's political network.

Current Duterte-Allied Senators:

Christopher "Bong" Go: Topped the senatorial race with massive support, serving as Duterte's former aide and most loyal lieutenant
Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa: The architect of Duterte's drug war, placed third in elections
Rodante Marcoleta: Conservative former House lawmaker, came in sixth
Robin Padilla: Action star turned senator, consistently supports Duterte policies
Imee Marcos: The president's own sister, who dramatically broke ranks to support the Dutertes after Rodrigo Duterte's arrest

This Duterte bloc of at least 5–6 senators forms a critical mass that could complicate impeachment proceedings. Since conviction requires a two-thirds majority (16 out of 24 senators), having even 8–9 senators opposed to conviction could allow Sara Duterte to survive impeachment.

The Judicial Branch: Duterte's Lasting Influence

Perhaps most concerning is Duterte's systematic capture of the judiciary during his six-year presidency. His appointees now dominate the highest courts that could potentially intervene in Sara Duterte's cases.

Supreme Court Domination

Twelve of the 15 Supreme Court justices are Duterte appointees, including:

Chief Justice Alexander Gesmundo: Appointed by Duterte in 2021 as his personal choice, has consistently voted in favor of presidential interests
Jose Midas Marquez: Appointed despite Sara Duterte's initial opposition to his candidacy

This 80% Duterte-appointed Supreme Court could potentially issue favorable rulings on constitutional challenges to Sara Duterte's impeachment or criminal cases.

Sandiganbayan Anti-Graft Court

The Sandiganbayan, which handles high-profile graft cases, also contains multiple Duterte appointees:

Multiple justices appointed between 2016–2022 who could hear any potential corruption cases against Sara Duterte
The court's composition could influence how aggressively cases are prosecuted

The Executive Branch's Hidden Loyalties

While Marcos leads the executive, key positions remain filled with Duterte appointees who could subtly undermine prosecutions.

Department of Justice and Ombudsman

Samuel Martires: The current Ombudsman was appointed by Duterte on July 26, 2018. Critics have specifically warned that as a "Duterte appointee, people are extra vigilant in watching him" handle Sara Duterte's corruption charges. Martires has been criticized for reducing transparency and protecting corrupt officials during his tenure.

Critical timing update: Martires' term expires on July 27, 2025—just one week before the planned impeachment trial start. President Marcos has stated he wants the next Ombudsman to be "judicious, courageous, and fair," suggesting potential departure from Duterte-era appointees. Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla is among 17 applicants for the position.

Deputy Ombudsmen: Duterte also appointed key deputies:

Anderson Lo: Deputy Ombudsman for Mindanao (Duterte's power base)
Jose Mercado Balmeo Jr.: Deputy for Military and Law Enforcement Offices
Dante Vargas: Deputy for the Visayas

Legal Infrastructure

Jose Calida, Duterte's former Solicitor General, was retained by Marcos as Commission on Audit chief before eventually resigning. This pattern of recycling Duterte loyalists into new positions reinforces the suspicion that influence still runs deep within the legal infrastructure.

Local Government Networks: The Grassroots Foundation

Duterte's influence extends deep into local government structures across the Philippines, creating potential safe havens and obstruction networks.

Mayor Networks and Political Dynasties

Duterte's grip over local politicians has been described as "arguably the tightest since the martial-law dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos". Key mechanisms include:

Presidential pork barrel distribution to loyal mayors and governors
Active intervention in local elections to install loyal officials
Protection networks for officials who follow Duterte's lead

Mindanao Stronghold

The Davao region remains a Duterte fortress, with family members and allies controlling key positions:

Sebastian Duterte: Still serves as Davao City Mayor despite absenteeism issues
Regional officials throughout Mindanao maintain loyalty to the Duterte brand

Security Forces: Divided Loyalties

The military and police apparatus presents perhaps the most concerning potential for interference, given their direct operational capabilities.

Philippine National Police

While current PNP leadership serves under Marcos, Duterte's influence on police culture remains strong. Key factors include:

Ronald dela Rosa: Former PNP chief under Duterte, now senator with significant police network influence
Debold Sinas: Duterte's last PNP chief appointment, known for aggressive drug war implementation
Police culture: Many officers still view Duterte favorably as their former protector during the drug war

Armed Forces Concerns

Despite official denials, there are concerns about military loyalties. Duterte's administration provided:

Salary increases and modernization funding that created goodwill among military personnel
Protection promises for officers involved in controversial operations
Personal relationships built through frequent base visits and direct engagement

Potential Backdoor Scenarios

These embedded networks could facilitate several protection mechanisms for Sara Duterte:

Procedural Obstruction

Senate allies could manipulate impeachment trial procedures
Supreme Court justices could issue stays or favorable constitutional interpretations
Ombudsman office could slow-walk or dismiss corruption investigations

Information Networks

Local officials could provide early warning of enforcement actions
Police contacts could alert to planned arrests or searches
Court personnel could leak sensitive case information

Safe Harbor Creation

Mindanao strongholds could provide physical sanctuary if needed
Local government protection through friendly mayors and governors
Security force sympathy that could complicate arrest operations

The Loyalty Test: Recent Developments

The 2025 midterm election results revealed that Duterte's network remains formidable. Despite expectations that Marcos allies would dominate, Duterte-backed candidates performed "better than expected," securing at least four Senate seats and demonstrating continued political strength.

This electoral success sends a clear signal to government officials that the Duterte brand retains significant power, potentially encouraging fence-sitting bureaucrats to maintain their old loyalties rather than fully commit to the Marcos administration.

Constitutional Crisis Potential

The existence of this parallel power structure within the Marcos government creates the conditions for a potential constitutional crisis. If Duterte loyalists in key positions actively obstruct legal proceedings against Sara Duterte, it could trigger:

Inter-branch conflicts between different government agencies
Public legitimacy questions about the rule of law
International credibility damage regarding Philippine democratic institutions

What should scare us isn’t the shouting matches–it’s the quiet sabotage. The slow rot from the inside. It sets the stage for Sara Duterte to slip through–not by winning in court, but through quiet, deliberate interference that never makes headlines.

What Happens to the Senators

This is where the senators might feel real heat.

If they dismiss the case illegally, they're not just making a political move—they might be violating their oath. The Supreme Court could order them to do the trial. They swore to "do impartial justice" under the Constitution. If they throw that away, they could end up as the ones under scrutiny.

We've seen this before. In 2001, senators walked out of the Estrada trial. The people took to the streets. The country turned upside down.

Some wounds never heal. They just get buried under newer scandals.

Regardless of Impeachment, the Legal Storm Rages On

This impeachment is just one of many fronts.

Even if Sara Duterte walks away from the Senate trial, she's still in the middle of a legal battlefield that stretches across multiple agencies and jurisdictions. And none of those roads are easy, clean, or quiet.

DOJ Investigations

The sedition and grave threats charges are still active. These stem from her now-infamous remarks: that if she were assassinated, she'd order hits on President Marcos, First Lady Liza Marcos, and Speaker Martin Romualdez. That wasn't some drunken whisper. She said it publicly during a November 23, 2024 online press conference.

The NBI filed complaints on February 12, 2025. The DOJ is still going through preliminary investigation. And if those threats are proven in court, we're not talking about a slap on the wrist. Grave threats tied to murder could carry a sentence of up to 40 years.

That’s not drama. That’s a crime with a name and a jail term.

Ombudsman Probe

Then there's the ₱612.5 million in confidential funds. The Ombudsman's office launched a formal preliminary investigation on June 20, 2025, covering plunder, bribery, technical malversation, and falsification.

Ten people are named—including Sara Duterte and senior officials from the Office of the Vice President and DepEd.

They've been ordered to submit counter-affidavits within 10 days of receiving the order. If the Ombudsman finds probable cause, these cases go straight to the Sandiganbayan, the anti-graft court. And plunder isn't just a headline—it's a lifetime sentence, no bail.

More Legal Hurdles

There's also a disbarment case filed against Sara by Larry Gadon, her supposed ally. He cited her assassination remarks as unprofessional and unbecoming of a lawyer.

And on top of that? Sara herself filed petitions before the Supreme Court to dismiss the impeachment entirely. But most legal experts see those as flimsy and unlikely to succeed.

So even if she walks, she doesn't walk far. And definitely not free.

So What's at Stake Here?

It's Bigger Than Sara

If this impeachment ends clean—and by clean, I mean the process is followed, the trial is held, and the Senate fulfills its constitutional role—then at least we can say the system worked. Whether she's acquitted or convicted, it would mean the institutions stood their ground. That even in chaos, process mattered.

But if it ends with a shortcut—if senators sweep it under the rug, dismiss the complaint illegally, or refuse to even hold a trial—it sets a terrifying precedent. What's stopping the next corrupt official from doing the same?

This isn't just about the Vice President. It's about the future of accountability in this country.

Separation of Powers? We'll See.

If the Supreme Court steps in, it'll test the line between politics and law.

Impeachment is supposed to be a political process, not a legal one. That's why courts usually stay out of it. But if the Senate throws the Constitution out the window—if it refuses to hold a trial, or dismisses the case on made-up grounds—then the Court might not have a choice.

That's when it stops being a political question and becomes a constitutional one.

And if that happens, we're entering dangerous territory. Because then it's not just Sara Duterte on trial—it's the system itself. The rules we claim to follow. The balance of power between branches of government.

This might be the point where the courts finally have to say, enough. The question is: will they?

The World Is Watching

Don't think the international community is ignoring this.

Constitutional chaos here doesn't just rattle local headlines—it makes the world nervous. Investerors pull back. Allies take a step back. Suddenly, you’re no longer a partner. You’re a risk they’d rather not deal with.

Instability in the Philippines has ripple effects across Southeast Asia. It happened before—after the Estrada trial collapsed, after Gloria's scandals, after Duterte's drug war drew international condemnation.

Democracy here has always been fragile. And if the country's institutions start bending for political convenience again, it won't just be a local crisis.

It becomes a regional problem. A credibility problem.

And once that reputation breaks, it's hard to put back together.

The Updated Timeline: Critical Developments

Current confusion about impeachment trial timeline: While Senate President Francis Escudero originally proposed July 30, 2025 as the trial start date, recent developments show senators are split on this timeline. Senator Joel Villanueva revealed that the Day 1 of the trial may actually be pushed to August 4, 2025—a week after President Marcos delivers his fourth State of the Nation Address on July 28. However, other senators like Francis Pangilinan argued for no delay, citing the constitutional mandate that trials should "forthwith proceed."

The timing is significant because it coincides with Samuel Martires' retirement as Ombudsman on July 27, 2025.

The Senate first convened as an impeachment court on June 10, 2025, but sent the articles back to the House for clarification—proof that either side can still play games with the process if they want to.

Final Thoughts

Standing in that hallway at 3 a.m., watching my dog shake off the rain, I realized something that should terrify every Filipino.

Sara Duterte doesn't need to win her impeachment trial to walk away unscathed. She just needs the system to break in a thousand small ways. And the people positioned to break it? They're already in place. They've been there all along.

The hidden network of Duterte loyalists embedded throughout the Marcos administration—from the Supreme Court to the Ombudsman's office, from the Senate to local governments—represents the real threat to Philippine democracy. Sometimes it’s not the noise that breaks a system. It’s the silence.

If she walks—whether through legitimate acquittal or through the systematic undermining of legal processes—it won't just be a victory for Sara Duterte. It will be a signal that in the Philippines, political connections still matter more than the rule of law. That networks built on loyalty and fear can still shield the powerful from accountability.

The rain has stopped. The floods will recede. But the damage to our institutions? That's the kind of erosion that happens slowly, invisibly—until one day you wake up and discover the foundation has been completely washed away.

And by then, it's too late to rebuild.

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