This article started on a night when I had some extra time. I was rewatching The Last of Us on HBO, letting the scenes play out in the background while going through my old notes on strategic political isolation. I wasn’t planning to write anything. I was just reviewing how this strategy shows up in different countries and political eras. Somewhere in between the clickers on screen and my scribbles on paper, I started thinking about how the pattern fits what’s happening in the Marcos administration today.

This isn’t a defense of Marcos. It isn’t an attack on Sara Duterte. I’m simply observing what’s in front of us. And I’ll admit it: I can see a pattern forming. I might be wrong. I might be right. Still feels worth looking at.

What follows comes from documented events, news reports, and historical cases. Nothing here claims certainty or predicts the future. It’s more like thinking aloud, tracing the shape of something that feels familiar.

Strategic Political Isolation: Weakening a Leader by Stripping Away Their Inner Circle

The Marcos administration looks like it’s coming apart in slow motion. Not through a coup or a dramatic military push, but through something quieter. His closest people are being removed one after another, and the effect is the same as cutting a tree by shaving away its roots. Political scientists refer to this as strategic political isolation. It’s a method built around one simple idea: make the leader stand alone. Once he stands alone, replacing him becomes easier, smoother, and harder to trace back to a single action.

I originally called it “indirect destabilization,” but the actual term used in political science, intelligence work, and historical cases is strategic political isolation. And when you apply that lens to what’s happening here, the shape becomes clearer.

The person rising in the background is Vice President Sara Duterte.

Everything happening today — the resignations, the scandal exploitation, the institutional maneuvers — fits the pattern that has appeared again and again in other countries.

The Philippine Situation: A Political Purge in Real Time

The Forced Resignations That Started It All

In November 2025, Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin and Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman were forced to leave their posts after the flood control scandal, which involved billions in allegedly misallocated infrastructure funds. People were told they stepped down out of delicadeza, but Bersamin immediately tore that story apart. He said, “I did not resign,” and admitted he received a call instructing him to leave. The resignation narrative evaporated on the spot.

Former Congressman Zaldy Co had directly linked both Bersamin and Pangandaman to budget insertions. That accusation cornered Marcos, leaving him with little choice but to let them go. This is the heart of strategic political isolation. The leader is pushed into a situation where he removes his own people, weakening himself while appearing responsible for the decision.

The National Security Council Gambit

A year earlier, Marcos had already built tension with the Duterte camp. In December 2024, he signed Executive Order 81, removing Sara Duterte and former president Rodrigo Duterte from the National Security Council. The official explanation was that Sara was “not considered relevant” to NSC matters. She’s the vice president. The explanation didn’t hold, and everyone could see the underlying political message: the Dutertes were being cut out of national security discussions.

Instead of ending the conflict, the move pushed the Duterte camp into counteroffensive mode.

The Counter-Attack: Building an Alternative Power Base

Rodrigo Duterte escalated the conflict openly. He called for military action against Marcos and accused the House of Representatives under Speaker Martin Romualdez of being the “most rotten institution” in the country. His statements were not casual outbursts. They were political strikes aimed at weakening Marcos’s institutional base.

Sara Duterte moved differently. She stayed inside her role as vice president, but she criticized Marcos’s response to the floods and organized her own relief operations that made her look capable and prepared. She avoided confirming her 2028 plans but moved like someone building momentum for them. She gained ground without attaching herself to the destabilization accusations being thrown around.

Marcos’s camp then spoke about foreign-funded plots involving Sara, her brother Paolo, and retired military officers. Military intelligence began investigating. Officials warned publicly that such plots would amount to treason. Sara dismissed everything as chismis. Still, the intensity of the response showed that Marcos felt the pressure.

Meanwhile, the flood control scandal produced several outcomes that worked in Sara’s favor. Marcos lost Bersamin and Pangandaman. Romualdez suffered a major credibility hit. Protests involving religious groups and retired generals grew louder. Public anger intensified. Sara’s 2028 structure strengthened quietly in the background.

One side lost key operators.
The other side grew more visible and more prepared.

That’s strategic political isolation in its purest form: weaken the leader by removing the people who keep him functional, and let the successor gather political strength without touching the mess.

Historical Precedents: Where This Happened Before

When I reviewed my notes, the same shape appeared across different countries and decades.

Iran (2023–2025): Khamenei’s Inner Circle Hollowed Out

Israeli airstrikes targeted the core advisers of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. These were not random names. Hossein Salami, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and Mohammad Kazemi were part of a small group of advisers Khamenei relied on for major decisions. Security analysts called the resulting gaps “significant,” warning of increased risks of strategic errors. As these trusted figures disappeared, Khamenei grew more reliant on whoever remained. In that vacuum, his son Mojtaba strengthened his position with the Revolutionary Guards, quietly positioning himself as successor.

Brazil 1964: The Indirect Coup

President João Goulart’s fall is often described as a coup, but the real work happened long before soldiers moved. The United States, through the CIA and Brazilian elites, weakened Goulart’s base by funding opposition candidates, destabilizing the economy, influencing military factions, and isolating him in Congress. By the time the coup occurred, Goulart had already been left without strong allies. The real collapse happened through erosion, not force.

Ukraine 2024: Zelensky’s Purge

Ukraine shows another angle. President Volodymyr Zelensky removed almost all the old Kvartal 95 circle and replaced them with people tied to Andriy Yermak. This included removing Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny and NSC Secretary Oleksii Danilov. Over time, Yermak’s protégés dominated the administration, leaving Zelensky surrounded by a smaller, more unified group. It wasn’t an attack on Zelensky from the outside, but the mechanism was familiar: reshaping power from within by removing alternative voices.

The CIA Regime Change Playbook

Lindsay O’Rourke’s research documents over a hundred covert regime change attempts. Many involve the same approach: use corruption cases, amplify media narratives, fund opposition, engineer economic pressure, target military and electoral officials, and exploit scandals. The strategy focuses on dismantling a leader’s network, not attacking the leader directly.

The Mechanics of Strategic Political Isolation

Across all these cases, the pattern repeats. Scandals hit the leader’s inner circle. Funding networks tighten. Legislative allies drift away. The military quietly shifts. Media coverage frames the leader as weak or incompetent. Another figure emerges as the stable alternative. Eventually the leader ends up standing alone, making poor decisions under pressure.

Why It Works

This strategy blends into the political landscape because everything happens through legal or procedural channels. Hearings, resignations, investigations, and media narratives move the pieces without ever feeling like an outright overthrow. The system does the work. And every resignation or scandal makes the leader more vulnerable.

It succeeds because it doesn’t look like a single coordinated attack. Each event seems separate. The leader becomes dependent on whoever remains. And the successor benefits quietly without appearing involved.

The Philippine Twist: Two Sides Using the Same Playbook

What makes the Philippine case unusual is that both the Marcos camp and the Duterte camp are applying versions of strategic political isolation. Marcos removed the Dutertes from the NSC and began floating destabilization allegations. The Dutertes used the flood control scandal, public statements, protests, and institutional pressure to weaken Marcos’s footing. It has turned into a political tug-of-war where both sides are trying to isolate each other.

The question now is not whether the strategy is happening. The question is who isolates whom first. And if you look at who has the more organized path toward succession, the Duterte camp appears ahead.

What History Suggests

If this continues, expect more scandals, more resignations, more shifts inside the armed forces and police, more public fatigue, and eventually a 2028 Sara Duterte announcement that positions her as the answer to the chaos. If Marcos’s position weakens too far, the clash could happen before 2028. Theoretically, real reform could break this cycle, but history rarely leans toward that direction.

Final Note

In the end, everything here is just an attempt to make sense of what we’re watching unfold. Strategic political isolation has appeared in many countries, and the moves happening in our own politics carry a similar shape. Whether this ends in recovery, collapse, or something in between, whatever happens next will shape the direction of the country for both those in power and the people living with their decisions.

SOURCES:

1. Sara Duterte-Carpio: Feud puts spotlight on Philippines' Vice President
   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/15/sara-duterte-carpio-feud-puts-spotlight-on-philippines-vice-president

2. Sara Duterte: Philippines' political feud takes a dramatic turn
   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gzn4j0g20o

3. Palace: Foreign-funded destab efforts, if true, can be considered treason
   https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/966824/palace-foreign-funded-destabilization-efforts-treason/story/

4. Marcos drops VP Duterte, former presidents in NSC revamp
   https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2021249/marcos-drops-sara-former-presidents-in-nsc-revamp

5. Martin Romualdez
   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Romualdez

6. Destabilization efforts may be foreign-funded – Palace
   https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2025/11/21/2488832/destabilization-efforts-may-be-foreign-funded-palace

7. Critics hit for linking Sara's removal from NSC to politics
   https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2025/01/08/2412614/critics-hit-linking-saras-removal-nsc-politics

8. Growing Rifts, Breaking Ties: Marcos v. Duterte as an Institutional Crisis in the Philippines
   https://democratic-erosion.org/2025/05/15/growing-rifts-breaking-ties-marcos-v-duterte-as-an-institutional-crisis-in-the-philippine/

9. 'Destabilization' and Disunity in the Philippine Government
   https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/destabilization-and-disunity-in-the-philippine-government/

10. Philippines' Marcos drops estranged VP Duterte from Security Council
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippines-marcos-drops-estranged-vp-duterte-security-council-2025-01-03/

11. Sara Duterte: Marcos facing 'a profound crisis of confidence'
    https://www.facebook.com/inquirerdotnet/posts/sara-duterte-marcos-facing-a-profound-crisis-of-confidence/1272263658417920/

12. PH cities' league backs Marcos leadership amid alleged destabilization efforts
    https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/11/19/news/national/ph-cities-league-backs-marcos-leadership-amid-alleged-destabilization-efforts/

13. Palace: Ouster calls could derail Marcos-led corruption probe
    https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2140791/palace-ouster-calls-could-derail-marcos-led-corruption-probe

14. The Marcos–Duterte feud is undermining Philippine security in the South China Sea
    https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/11/marcos-duterte-feud-undermining-philippine-security-south-china-sea

15. Who else will be axed in Marcos Cabinet?
    https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/nation/2025/5/27/who-else-will-be-axed-in-marcos-cabinet-0901

16. 'Open warfare': Philippines' Marcos-Duterte alliance crumbles
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/open-warfare-philippines-marcos-duterte-alliance-crumbles-2024-02-02/

17. VP Sara Duterte still undecided on 2028 political plans
    https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/966141/vp-sara-duterte-still-undecided-on-2028-political-plans/story/

18. Marcos may lose House clout as Romualdez exits
    https://www.bworldonline.com/the-nation/2025/09/21/699739/marcos-may-lose-house-clout-as-romualdez-exits/

19. Philippine political rift widens as VP Duterte accuses Marcos of incompetence
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-political-rift-widens-vp-duterte-accuses-marcos-incompetence-2024-10-18/

20. Impeachment of Sara Duterte
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Sara_Duterte

21. Marcos Jr's Cabinet resignations: A shake-up in public service
    https://gulfnews.com/opinion/marcos-jrs-cabinet-resignations-a-shake-up-in-public-service-1.500136467

22. VP Sara funding alleged destabilization plot vs Marcos? Malacañang says AFP probe on
    https://www.philippinenews.com/vp-sara-funding-alleged-destabilization-plot-vs-marcos-malacanang-says-afp-probe-on/

23. Palace: Military's intel community verifying alleged destab plot vs Marcos
    https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/965699/palace-military-s-intel-community-verifying-alleged-destab-plot-vs-marcos/story/

24. AFP verifying list of those plotting to overthrow govt
    https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/11/12/news/afp-verifying-list-of-those-plotting-to-overthrow-govt/2221320

25. 2 top Philippine officials in Marcos' cabinet quit amid flood control scandal
    https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3333145/2-top-philippine-officials-marcos-cabinet-quit-amid-flood-control-scandal

26. Philippines ministers resign as flood scandal reaches presidential palace
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/19/philippines-ministers-resign-as-flood-scandal-reaches-presidential-palace

27. Philippine Ex-Cabinet Official Says He Was Forced to Quit
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-19/marcos-ex-cabinet-official-says-he-was-forced-to-quit-as-graft-mess-deepens

28. Marcos Cashiers Aides in Attempt to Contain Scandal
    https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/marcos-cashiers-aides-attempt-contain-scandal

29. 2 Marcos Cabinet members resign over ghost flood control projects
    https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/philippines/philippines-2-marcos-cabinet-members-resign-over-ghost-flood-control-projects-1.5003

30. Bersamin, Pangandaman resign
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3ZatuqZQ9A

31. President Marcos accepts resignations of ES Bersamin and DBM Secretary Pangandaman
    https://mirror.pco.gov.ph/news_releases/president-marcos-accepts-resignations-of-es-bersamin-and-dbm-secretary-pangandaman/

32. Sociopolitical Destabilization Dimensions in Comparative Global and Regional Perspective
    https://www.sociostudies.org/almanac/articles/sociopolitical_destabilization_dimensions_in_comparative_global_and_regional_perspective/

33. The politics of deliberate destabilisation for sustainability transitions
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210422421000344

34. High Costs of Over 100 Cases of Covert Regime Change Operations and Destabilization
    https://countercurrents.org/2024/08/high-costs-of-over-100-cases-of-covert-regime-change-operations-and-destabilization/

35. Why President Zelensky Is Purging His Inner Circle
    https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/04/why-president-zelensky-is-purging-his-inner-circle?lang=en

36. 1964 Brazilian coup d'état
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Brazilian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

37. Iran leader Khamenei sees his inner circle hollowed out by Israel
    https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-leader-khamenei-sees-his-inner-circle-hollowed-out-by-israel-2025-06-17/

38. Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei isolated, son rising, as inner circle falls
    https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-isolated-son-rising-as-inner-circle-falls-t-101688390223920.html