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LATEST COMMENTARY

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FIVE THINGS TO KNOW

5-minute read

ABOUT BATO DELA ROSA’S ₱50-MILLION BOUNTY

The DILG announced a ₱50-million bounty for Senator Bato dela Rosa’s capture on October 23. The announcement came after months of talk about a possible reward—and days after Interior Secretary Jonvic Remulla said authorities knew dela Rosa was in Mindanao and were negotiating for his turnover.

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Afternoon6-minute read

ABOUT THE OVP’S 2027 BUDGET AFTER A 16-MINUTE SENATE HEARING

The Office of the Vice President’s proposed budget moved through a Senate panel today in 16 minutes. Vice President Sara Duterte was absent; her chief of staff answered for the office. Yesterday’s MCT explainer looked at parliamentary courtesy. Today’s question is what that short hearing actually did to the spending plan, and what it left for the Senate to examine.

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Afternoon6-minute read

ABOUT THE EDSA BUSWAY’S 2027 BUDGET GAP

The Department of Transportation is again asking Congress to fund the EDSA Busway. Its original ₱1.756 billion request received zero in the administration’s proposed 2027 National Expenditure Program. A House budget panel later inserted ₱75 million. Those two statements describe different stages of the same budget process. Neither tells us yet what Congress will finally approve.

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Afternoon7-minute read

ABOUT DECLARING AN AMBASSADOR PERSONA NON GRATA

Several lawmakers want Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan sent home. The Chinese Embassy has challenged them to follow through. That exchange leaves an ordinary reader with a reasonable question: if our own officials say an ambassador should leave, why is he still here?

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7:23 AM5-minute read

ABOUT LINO CAYETANO AND THE CHANGE AT THE PCO

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced on October 11 that Lino Cayetano would replace Dave Gomez at the Presidential Communications Office. He said Gomez had been bypassed by the Commission on Appointments and that the change would be formalized when they returned from Singapore.

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6:10 PM4-minute read

ABOUT THE DISPUTE OVER CHANGING THE ORDER OF IMPEACHMENT WITNESSES

The argument at Thursday’s impeachment hearing was about which witness the prosecution could present next. It began with an absent lawyer and became a dispute over preparation and notice. Understanding the exchange helps explain why a courtroom can pause even when the parties, documents and another potential witness are already in the building.

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3:01 PM3-minute read

ABOUT MARK VILLAR’S MOVE TO THE SENATE MAJORITY

Senator Mark Villar has formally left the Senate minority and joined the majority. The October 8 move strengthens the bloc supporting the chamber’s leadership and gives Villar two significant positions. Its implications for Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial, however, require more than counting political allies.

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9:56 AM4-minute read

ABOUT THE MANAGER’S CHECKS AND THE QUESTIONS OVER SARA DUTERTE’S SALN

A bank balance can fall even when the value represented by the money has not disappeared. That distinction sits behind the prosecution’s questions about manager’s checks in Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial. To understand the October 7 testimony, we need to follow the instrument, the person entitled to its value and the declaration of assets for the relevant year.

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9:08 PM3-minute read

ABOUT WHAT COA’S REJECTION OF THE OVP APPEAL MEANS

COA has rejected the request to reconsider the ₱73.287-million disallowance involving the Office of the Vice President’s December 2022 confidential expenses. The October 5 resolution became public on October 7. Its significance is easier to understand when the amount, the audit finding and the available legal remedies are kept separate.

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7:47 AM3-minute read

ABOUT WHAT BANK SECRECY PROTECTS IN AN IMPEACHMENT TRIAL

The arguments over bank records in Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial involve several protections. The privacy of a peso deposit, the protection of a foreign-currency deposit, and the confidentiality of a report sent to the AMLC come from different rules. Understanding those differences helps explain what the court has allowed and what remains in dispute.

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8:43 AM8-minute read

ABOUT THE AMLC RECORDS IN SARA DUTERTE’S IMPEACHMENT TRIAL

₱4.4 billion is a figure that can dominate a conversation before anyone asks what it counts. AMLC Executive Director Ronel Buenaventura presented that approximate total in the Senate impeachment court on October 5, covering reported transactions involving Vice President Sara Duterte and her husband, Manases Carpio. He also explained that a bank correction had reduced the earlier figure of ₱6.7 billion.

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6:44 PM5-minute read

ABOUT THE COINS.PH CASH-IN RESTRICTION AND WHAT USERS SHOULD CHECK

If you use Coins.ph to receive money or pay bills, a failed cash-in can disrupt plans for the day. Coins.ph has announced that some incoming peso services are temporarily unavailable following a BSP directive to improve its internal controls. Its advisory also identifies services that existing customers can still use.

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12:00 PM5-minute read

ABOUT THE PROPOSED RULES ON SECONDHAND PHONES

A secondhand phone can put a useful device within reach of someone who cannot afford a new one. The problem comes when the buyer has no clear information about where it came from, what condition it is in, or who will fix it if it fails.

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8:35 PM6-minute read

ABOUT THE SUPREME COURT’S DECISION ON THE IMPEACHMENT VOTE THRESHOLD

The Supreme Court dismissed three petitions on September 30 challenging how the Senate impeachment court would count the votes needed to convict Vice President Sara Duterte. The dismissal leaves the Senate’s September 23 ruling in place, but it needs to be read carefully. A case can be dismissed because it does not meet the requirements for the Court to hear it, without settling whether the challenged action is constitutional.

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6:12 AM6-minute read

ABOUT WHAT BASTE DUTERTE SHOULD HAVE CHECKED AS MAYOR

Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte told the Senate impeachment court on September 29 that he had been unfamiliar with GenCorp Industries Inc. before it came up in the proceedings. He also said he did not know about Vice President Sara Duterte’s declared business interest in the company.

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10:45 PM7-minute read

ABOUT THE OCTOBER WATER-RATE INCREASES

Metro Manila households served by Maynilad and Manila Water will see slightly higher water charges beginning October 1. The announced increases are small for many residential customers, but the figures vary by concessionaire and consumption level. That makes it easy to misunderstand a notice expressed only in centavos per cubic meter.

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7:21 AM6-minute read

ABOUT THE NOTE HANDED TO GIBO TEODORO IN SEOUL

Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr. was answering questions at the Seoul Defense Dialogue on September 8 when a man handed him a note. He read it aloud, challenged its rejection of the 2016 South China Sea ruling and objected to being interrupted that way.

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9:55 AM8-minute read

ABOUT EL NIÑO AND PREPARING FOR LESS RAIN

It can be raining outside while PAGASA warns about El Niño. That can sound confusing when the immediate problem is a wet road or a flooded field. The two warnings describe different periods: the weather happening now and the rainfall conditions that may develop over the coming months.

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5:30 AM8-minute read

ABOUT THE NEW ARREST WARRANTS AGAINST ZALDY CO, MARTIN ROMUALDEZ AND TWO OTHERS

The Sandiganbayan has ordered the arrest of Zaldy Co, Martin Romualdez and two other accused in the plunder case filed on September 7. By Monday evening, authorities had served Romualdez's warrant and carried out booking procedures at Cardinal Santos Medical Center in San Juan. His arrest is a confirmed development; it does not establish that his three co-accused are also in custody.

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3:15 PM8-minute read

ABOUT THE PLUNDER CASE AGAINST MARTIN ROMUALDEZ

The Office of the Ombudsman filed a plunder case against former House Speaker Martin Romualdez at the Sandiganbayan on September 7 over his alleged involvement in flood-control kickbacks. The accusations have now reached the court that will handle the criminal case. Romualdez denies wrongdoing and remains presumed innocent.

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1:18 PM7-minute read

ABOUT THE NEW SWS POVERTY NUMBERS

Self-rated poverty and food poverty declined in June, but the figures also show how many Filipino families remain under pressure and why lower household budgets do not necessarily mean life became cheaper.

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2:02 PM11-minute read

ABOUT THE CHILDREN'S SOCIAL MEDIA SAFETY ACT

House Bill No. 9965 would bar children below 13 from having social media accounts, require parental consent for users aged 13 to 17, regulate platform algorithms, and impose fines reaching P50 million. It is still being deliberated in the House.

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12:02 PM7-minute read

ABOUT THE SEALED BIR BOX

Marcos authorized the BIR to comply with the Senate subpoena. That did not open the records to the public or prove the unexplained-wealth allegation.

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MCT READER PULSE · MCT-PULSE-2026-015

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September 10, 2026 · 1:49 AM7-minute read

ABOUT WHETHER THE IMPEACHMENT VOTE THRESHOLD CAN CHANGE

Why the Constitution points to 16 votes, why the current absences created a real dispute, and why the Senate must settle the counting rule before judgment.

Senator-judge Erwin Tulfo speaking during the Senate impeachment hearing on September 8, 2026.
Photo: Senate of the Philippines

The Constitution says Vice President Sara Duterte cannot be convicted unless two-thirds of all Senate members vote for conviction. In a full 24-member Senate, that means 16 votes. The dispute is whether the number must remain 16 when some senator-judges cannot take part.

That is no longer a theoretical question. Jinggoy Estrada and Rodante Marcoleta are detained, Ronald dela Rosa is in hiding, and Loren Legarda is on medical leave abroad. Senator-judge Erwin Tulfo has asked the impeachment court to reconsider its fixed-16 ruling. The Senate plans to hear independent legal experts on September 16, hear both sides on September 23, and vote on the issue afterward.

This is not a vote on Duterte's guilt. It is a decision about how the final vote will be counted. Here are the five points that should guide it.

1

THE CONSTITUTION POINTS TO 16, BUT IT DOES NOT ANSWER EVERY PRESENT-DAY FACT

Article XI says no person may be convicted in an impeachment trial without the concurrence of “two-thirds of all the Members of the Senate.” The Senate's impeachment rules use the same phrase. If all 24 seats are counted, the required number is 16. Presiding officer Francis Escudero adopted that reading when the trial opened on July 6.

The argument for 16 is easy to understand. The Constitution did not say two-thirds of those present or two-thirds of those voting. It said all members. That higher barrier protects an elected official from removal by a temporary majority or a thinly attended session. Retired Supreme Court justice and 1987 Constitution framer Adolfo Azcuna has said senators should remain in the count while they remain members, whether or not they can participate.

The harder question is what happens when a senator still holds office but is legally or practically unable to sit as a judge. The text does not explain whether detention, continued hiding while an arrest warrant is outstanding or prolonged medical leave changes the base. That gap is why serious lawyers can begin with the same constitutional sentence and reach different answers.

WHAT TO WATCH

Listen for a rule that defines who remains part of “all the Members.” A bare announcement of 16 or a lower number will not be enough. The Senate must explain how its rule treats detention, hiding, illness and any later return to the trial.

2

THE SUPREME COURT CASE MOST OFTEN CITED IS USEFUL, BUT IT IS NOT A DIRECT ANSWER

Tulfo relied on Avelino v. Cuenco, a 1949 Supreme Court case about whether the Senate had a quorum. A quorum is the minimum number of members needed for a body to conduct business. The Court treated a senator who was outside the country and beyond the Senate's reach differently when calculating whether enough senators were present.

That case supports a practical idea: a legislative body should not become unable to act because a member cannot be compelled to attend. But Avelino concerned a quorum under the 1935 Constitution. It did not interpret the two-thirds vote for an impeachment conviction under the 1987 Constitution. Using it here requires an analogy, and the Senate must explain how far that analogy can go.

This is where the two dangers meet. A fixed 16 can allow empty seats to work like votes against conviction. A shifting number can allow political actors to manipulate the result by sidelining senators. The Senate cannot solve one danger by pretending the other does not exist. Any rule it adopts must work in Duterte's trial and when future political alliances are reversed.

WHAT TO WATCH

Check whether the invited experts treat Avelino as controlling law or only as guidance. They should also explain why a quorum rule can or cannot be carried into the Constitution's separate language for an impeachment conviction.

3

RESPECTED LAWYERS ARE DIVIDED, AND NONE OF THEIR OPINIONS IS YET THE RULING

Former Supreme Court justice Antonio Carpio has said the number can fall below 16 depending on how many senators are legally able to participate. San Beda Graduate School of Law dean Ranhilio Aquino has argued that the constitutional formula assumes the senators being counted heard the evidence, joined the deliberations and can vote. Former Senate president Franklin Drilon has called the number an open question that must be settled before a verdict creates a constitutional crisis.

On the other side, Azcuna starts with continued Senate membership and keeps the base at 24 unless a member loses that status. UP law professor Michael Tiu Jr. and UST political science chair Dennis Coronacion have also defended the plain reading of “all the Members.” Their concern is that reducing the denominator could weaken a constitutional safeguard and make removal easier to engineer.

These are informed positions, not judgments of the Supreme Court. The Senate's invited amici curiae, or friends of the court, will advise the senator-judges. They will not decide the issue for them. The names of the experts also need official confirmation before their views can be treated as part of the proceeding.

WHAT TO WATCH

Look for a written opinion or clearly recorded reasoning from each expert. The most useful advice will address the constitutional words and the risk of manipulation. Choosing a number that helps one side today is not enough.

4

DUTERTE-ALIGNED SENATORS HAVE A LEGAL ARGUMENT, AND THEIR POSITION ALSO HELPS THE DEFENSE

Senator Robin Padilla, a public Duterte supporter, has insisted that the Constitution requires 16 votes. Senator Pia Cayetano, who spoke for minority leader Alan Peter Cayetano during the debate, challenged Tulfo's use of Avelino. She said the current minority never accepted that case as the Senate's settled rule during the chamber's earlier leadership fight. Their stated objections concern constitutional text, consistency and the danger of changing the rule during an ongoing trial.

Those objections should be answered on their merits. Calling them Duterte allies does not make their legal argument wrong. The fixed threshold is also supported by senators and legal figures who should not simply be folded into a Duterte bloc.

Still, the practical effect cannot be ignored. With four of 24 senators currently unavailable, a fixed 16 would require 16 of the remaining 20, or 80 percent, to convict. If only 20 were legally counted, two-thirds would require 14. Keeping the base at 24 therefore gives the defense a larger cushion. That is an effect of the rule, not proof of anyone's private motive.

WHAT TO WATCH

Separate each senator's public legal reason from the political result it produces. Ask whether the same senator would defend the same formula if the absent members belonged to the opposite camp and the accused were a political rival.

5

THE SENATE MUST SETTLE THE RULE NOW, BUT IT MUST NOT INVENT A NUMBER FOR A DESIRED VERDICT

The Senate has the sole power to try and decide impeachment cases. That gives the impeachment court the first responsibility to interpret its voting rule. The Supreme Court can review constitutional violations or grave abuse of discretion when a proper case reaches it, but it does not ordinarily issue advance legal advice simply because senators would prefer someone else to carry the burden.

The present Senate cannot postpone the question until the final tally. If the vote lands between 14 and 15 for conviction, the threshold could determine whether Duterte is acquitted or removed and disqualified from public office. A rule announced only after the numbers are known would immediately look designed for the result, whichever side wins.

MCT's view is straightforward: the Senate must resolve the denominator before judgment, explain it in public and apply a neutral rule to every senator. It must decide whether a member who cannot hear evidence or cast a lawful vote remains part of the constitutional count. That does not mean the Senate must lower the number. It means silence is no longer a defensible option.

WHAT TO WATCH

On September 23, look for a recorded vote on the threshold, the exact number adopted and the legal test behind it. Also watch whether either side asks the Supreme Court to review the ruling through an actual case.

BOTTOM LINE

Sixteen remains the operative threshold unless the impeachment court overturns its earlier ruling. There is a credible legal case for keeping it and a credible challenge based on senators who cannot take part. What the Senate cannot do is allow absence to decide the trial without explaining why, or lower the number simply because one side wants an easier path to victory.

The cleanest course is to decide the rule before the verdict, give reasons that can survive a change in political fortunes and let every senator be judged by the same standard. In this trial, the way the Senate counts may become as consequential as the votes themselves.

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